immunity versus vaccination in India!

immunity versus vaccination in India!

The 4th Serosurvey carried out by the leading medical body ICMR (Indian Council of Medical Research) in June-July 2021, taking more than 28,000 samples in 21 states, showed that about 70% of the population of India (including children) has antibodies, that is, relative immunity against COVID-19 infections – which is a big leap from the third poll done in January-February of this year, which showed only about 21% of people with antibodies. However, the ICMR study does not distinguish antibodies developed through natural viral infections or through vaccination in terms of number.

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Coming after the disastrously uncontrollable second wave of COVID-19, which has not yet subsided, the result is extremely significant: it definitely shows a glimmer of hope in terms of India moving closer to developing mass immunity, because in early 2020 experts said that at least 80% of the population of any country must develop immunity to achieve herd immunity; and that about 70% of India’s population expects not to have the severe form of the disease, thus reducing hospitalizations and possible fatalities and possibly lessening the impact of the dreaded third wave.

But the fact remains that at least 400 million of India’s population are still susceptible to infections, dominated by the more infectious Delta variants, putting India’s much-vaunted vaccination campaign in a dim light.

Now, the argument offered against trying to seek collective immunity (including the government of India) was the fact that at least 80% of people would have to be infected and, in a country like India, even with a higher mortality rate. a drop of about 1.5 percent, the number of deaths would be enormous and immensely unavoidable. We seem to see that the horrific second wave that no one prepared for nearly achieved that goal, possibly costing millions of lives.

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Even if we take into account all the people who take at least one dose and add to it the naturally infected people who would be responsible for only about 440 million people, officially of course, which would leave a large part of the population that developed antibodies beyond the 400 million susceptible people (India’s population is now about 1.35 billion, and it’s not known how. We’ve tried to offer our arguments about this seeming paradox (may not be for experts) about why this might to have happened.

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